The company's CEO notes that prices are already showing signs of such a recovery

European demand for steel will recover somewhat in 2026, with prices already showing signs of such a recovery amid the introduction of new, tougher EU trade measures and the implementation of CBAM. This opinion was expressed in an interview with Platts (part of S&P Global) by Antonio Marcegaglia, CEO of Italy’s Marcegaglia Group.

He said he was generally positive about annual consumption growth, especially in the second half of the year, as he predicted the effect of inventory reduction.

Infrastructure spending, especially in Germany and the engineering sector, is expected to be better, while demand in the automotive industry will remain generally stable, without declining.

However, Antonio Marcegaglia considers supply to be a more significant factor, as he believes that steel imports to the EU could decline by 35-40% year-on-year next year amid the replacement of protective measures. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding CBAM will hamper supplies.

The proposal to strengthen trade measures, he said, has already led to a recovery in European hot-rolled steel prices, and there is potential for this trend to continue. The final introduction of CBAM next year will provide additional support.

“Some market participants are talking about €40-60 per tonne, some forecasts reach €80-100… Today, it is really unknown. We are talking about approximately 8-10% of the cost of production, so in any case, this is additional important support for the price trend I described,” said Marcegaglia’s CEO.

However, there is still uncertainty about the technical details of the mechanism. Those wishing to use actual values will probably have to wait until February next year for an accurate calculation, and until then only preliminary estimates are possible.

According to the latest EUROFER forecasts, apparent steel consumption in the EU will begin to recover in 2026, increasing by 3%. This is slightly lower than the association’s previous estimate of 3.1%. As noted, this will happen provided that industrial conditions improve and global tensions ease, but these factors remain difficult to predict at this time.