October iron ore supplies may become the second largest in the country's history

Iron ore imports to China are showing steady growth despite a decline in steel production. According to estimates by Kpler analysts, shipments will reach 113.06 million tons in October 2025, which will be the second highest figure in history after a record 116.33 million tons in September. This indicates that Chinese importers remain active, while domestic steel production continues to decline, according to Reuters.

China accounts for approximately 75% of global seaborne iron ore imports and produces about half of the world’s steel. Since June, import volumes have consistently exceeded 100 million tons per month, offsetting the weak start to the year. In the first nine months of 2025, the country imported 917.69 million tons, only 0.1% less than a year earlier. Strong October figures could bring the annual balance back to growth.

At the same time, steel production in September fell to a 21-month low of 73.49 million tons (-4.6% y/y; -5% m/m). In the first nine months, steel output fell by 2.9% y/y to 746.25 million tons. This puts China on track for around 1 billion tons of steel for the year, which is in line with the government’s unofficial cap.

Analysts attribute the current trend to several factors. In early July, ore prices fell to $93/ton, which stimulated purchases by traders and mills. By the end of October, prices had recovered to $105-107/t, but imports remained high. The growth of stocks in ports to 133.6 million tons indicates that the market is acting ahead of the curve, expecting an improvement in the economic situation.

Optimism is also supported by expectations of a trade truce between China and the US, which the leaders of the two countries may discuss this week during the APEC summit in Gyeongju. Even a symbolic improvement in relations could give a short-term boost to the steel and raw materials market.

As a reminder, at the end of 2024, China increased its iron ore imports by 4.9% compared to 2023, to 1.24 billion tons. The country has been importing record volumes of raw materials for the second year in a row. In 2023, the volume amounted to 1.18 billion tons (+6.6% y/y).